The Washington Post published an article, Tuesday, about Ebola entitled “The Ominuous Math of the Ebola Epidemic”. As a health provider, it’s caught my attention not only because I’m one of the hundreds of millions that fear the disease, but because I saw an opportunity to educate patients with the real mathematics of the epidemic.
Let me start this endeavor by educating you of Ebola epidemic’s recent status in the world.
The entire article explored the undeniable reality of the outbreak that’s doubling its number of victims every month. The present infection analysis has shown that Ebola is now infecting 2 new patients for every new positive case made worse by the fact that its infection cycle is now completed in less than 30 days. The figures mean that the statistics of people being infected with the virus is increasing exponentially by approximately 200% each month.
To simplify matters, when you double a figure each month, it’ll not take for the epidemic to explode beyond what humanity can handle. Imagine owning an account in a bank, which you’ve started with $1000 in January and doubling magically as a month passes by. During the next month, you’d have $2000 and March $4000. By the end of the year, you’d then have more than $2 million in your account.
Ebola, in the same way, is spreading like this- exponential in nature. Unlike those that multiply in a linear aspect, exponential explosion could grow from one person in the community to a pandemic case that needed a day only to materialize.
Is there any way possible where we could, hand-in-hand, halt this progression?
To be able to stop this epidemic that looks uncontrollable in reality, we will have to get ahead of it through responding quickly with an overwhelming number of isolation actions, treatment beds, nurses, and doctors. As of today, the global efforts is too way behind our goal; responding with a fraction only of the total number of workers needed in reality.
Worse, the US superiors have failed its people, once again, through what appears to have been an encouragement of spreading the virus in its territories.
Unless a new dramatic adequate intervention is discovered, the current figure will remain undeniable. It may sound depressing, but we’re already behind the deadly progression.
Sad but still nobody has the answer. Let’s just keep waiting…